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日銀黒田総裁のサプライズ追加緩和と原油価格 株価の乱高下

 先月末、日銀黒田総裁が、サプライズといわれる追加金融緩和(年10~20兆円追加して80兆円に))を発表したとたん、円は116円の安値、株は17000円の高値をつけた。
 これは、安倍政権の消費税再増税への強力な援護と思われていたら、あにはかんや先週になって急に増税延期論が勢いを増してきた。その上、延期の是非を国民に問うためとかで、解散総選挙が急浮上してきた。
 支持率が急落しているとはいえまだ44%あるうちに、衆議院での絶対多数を確保してあと4年は安定政権を維持したいという意図か。

 このばたばたした動きの背景には、7-9月のGDPが想定外に悪いらしいという予感があったという。
 そして昨日、元来4月の増税の落ち込みの反動でプラスに転じるべき7-9月期が、マイナス1.6%という衝撃的な数字に落ち込んだ、と発表された。その日のうちに株価は500円以上、下落した。
 先週末に売った投資家が大きく儲け、売り損ねた投資家は損をした。

 これで消費税の延期はほぼ確実だろう。
 私たち経営者としても消費者としても増税延期はありがたい。
 しかし、先月末の黒田総裁のサプライズ緩和とあいまって、何年か先、我が国を財政破綻とハイパー・インフレとが襲う危機はいっそう高まったというべきか。備えは必要だ。 

  ところで黒田総裁のサプライズ緩和くらい、財務省や日銀の官僚の方々と、私たち一般の国民との感覚のズレを感じさせる出来事も珍しいのではないだろうか。
 昨年来、黒田総裁らは
「デフレマインド脱却」
「2年以内に2%以上のインフレ達成」を掲げて、異次元緩和を続けてきた。
 つまり日銀券をジャブジャブ刷りまくり、そのお金で邦銀保有の日本国債を買いまくって市中にお金をあふれさせ、好景気とインフレマインドとを作り出そうとされたのだ。
 そのインフレ・ターゲットの思惑が崩れて慌てさせられたのは、実はこの一ヶ月間の原油価格の暴落だった、と黒田総裁自らが言っている。
 原油価格は10月に入って10%以上も下落して物価を押し下げ総裁らのインフレ・シナリオを狂わせたのだという。
 

 こういう話を聞くと狂っているのはどちらなんだろうと考えざるを得ない。
 一体そもそも何のためのインフレ・ターゲットなんだろう?デフレマインドからの脱却なんて誰が頼んだことか。
 原油価格の下落が私たち国民にとって悪いことなんだろうか。
 黒田総裁ら日銀や財務官僚らは、せめて
「わが国はデフレマインドの脱却に向かって順調に歩んでおりますが、
わが国民にとって幸いなことに原油価格が下落しましたので、その分インフレ目標が遠のいただけです。原油安以外では順調であります」
 とか何とか言うのが、私たち一般の経営者や消費者に対する最低の礼儀であろう。

 先月末、黒田総裁のサプライズ追加緩和は、その前日、アメリカのイエレン連銀総裁の量的金融緩和の終焉発言と表裏一体と考えるのは自然なことだ。
 アメリカ連銀は量的緩和によって、アメリカ国債や住宅担保証券を買い支えてきたのだから、それを終焉させるということは、新たな買い手を見付けないかぎり国債や証券価格の下落を招きかねないわけだ。
  黒田総裁らが、邦銀の日本国債を買い上げるということは、邦銀が連銀に代わってアメリカか国債を買い支える余裕が生まれるということなのだ。

 私たち経営者としても消費者としても備えておかねばならない。

 

 今日は柄になく難しい話になってしまいごめんなさい。

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